Using Prezi for presentations

Finally found some time to revisit and review some previous training material that was laying around! The prezi presentation approach is pretty good and a different take on the standard slide packs. Check out a short set of slides on different types of time series.

Any comments or suggestions more than welcome.

Light reading of a manual…

There is a lot of good technical and detailed stuff hidden away in the international manuals if you know where to look.

The IMF has a Quarterly National Accounts manual which they are in the process of updating. A full link is available here: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/.

Chapter 7 has some detail on the specifics relating to seasonal adjustment. Check it out here: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/pdf/chapter7.pdf.

Useful guidance on communicating uncertainty

The Government Statistical Service in the United Kingdom have put out some useful guidance on communicating uncertainty. You can check it out here:

https://gss.civilservice.gov.uk/statistics/presentation-and-dissemination/communicating-uncertainty-change/

The most interesting part on page 4 is they say

“You should provide sufficient and appropriate information to indicate:
…a longer term view of change (e.g. trend)”

Good to see the trend get an official mention as when it is packaged with a range of other indicators (original and seasonally adjusted estimates), it can give a complete understanding of the nature of the time series. Why settle just for the seasonally adjusted estimates when it still contains the noisy part of the time series?

R interface to X-13-ARIMA-SEATS

If you’re a user of R then check out this package that interfaces to the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS executable.

http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/seasonal/README.html

Posted in R

A link to seasonal adjustment research papers

A good source of information related to theoretical and practical issues for seasonal adjustment is the United States Census Bureau website.

Check them all out here: http://www.census.gov/srd/www/sapaper/sapaper.html

Example of the use of trend for volatile series

A good example of how the use of trend estimates can help when the estimates are volatile.

Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/206348/bovinetb-statsnotice-12jun13.pdf

Example trend bovine

New versions of X-13-ARIMA-SEATS

I know many of you have been waiting for this and here it is!

New versions of X-13-ARIMA-SEATS have just been released by the United States Bureau of the Census. Check them all out in the following links.

The Bureau of the Census also has a lot of good seasonal adjustment resource information to check out.