USA retail sales and trend estimates for August 2015

It has been a long time since we’ve looked at the USA Retail Sales estimates. Way back in 2012: http://www.seasonaladjustment.com/2012/09/14/usa-retail-sales-for-august-2012-and-the-trend/ so it is worth a revisit.

The Census Bureau do not estimate or publish official trend estimates, but trend estimates can be derived by taking the published seasonally adjusted estimates and applying a set of Henderson filters (with a bit of code in R and ggplot2). Using the latest published data up to and including August 2015 gives

USA Retail Sales Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates

where the one month percentage change in the trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are

Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015
Trend -0.24 -0.18 -0.01 0.26 0.49 0.58 0.53 0.45 0.36
Seasonally adjusted -0.87 -0.77 -0.53 1.54 0.03 1.18 -0.04 0.71 0.19

So underlying one month movement in the trend has been strong since March 2015 even though the seasonally adjusted one month movements have bounced around. Even with a dip in the seasonally adjusted estimate in September 2015, it shouldn’t change the fundamental view of the underlying strengh in recent periods.

Over the length of the series the median for the one month percentage change in the trend for USA retail sales is 0.4%, so the recent activity is back in line with historical growth.

For background you can get the seasonally adjusted data here: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html